Possible host OS and Local php version mismatch

I can pull the database from a live Flywheel site onto my Local installation using the site backend. Works fine. However, when I try to do the same thing via CLI, this is the error I get (starting on Friday, I’ve done this thousands of times before and not seen this error):

Last login: Mon Apr 8 12:28:39 on ttys002

You have new mail.

mbp:~ jonschroeder$ /Users/jonschroeder/Library/Application\ Support/Local\ by\ Flywheel/ssh-entry/IWAfztXeh.sh ; exit;

root@476ef3798a56:/# wp migratedb profile 1

Verifying connection…

Initiating migration…

Error: HTTPS Connection Error: (#121 - scope: ajax_initiate_migration) This typically means that the version of OpenSSL that your local site is using to connect to the remote is incompatible or, more likely, being rejected by the remote server because it’s insecure. See our documentation for possible solutions.

I’ve reached out to MigrateDB Pro support, and here’s what they said:

Sometimes the versions of PHP in use on CLI vs via the webserver are different so that could potentially be a reason. It looks like you’re running the CLI command from the Local by Flywheel container, but you can actually run WP CLI commands from your host OS. You just need to set the database host to the Local IP.

WP Cli question - #7 by clay - Support - Local Community

This seems somewhat plausible. I’m wondering how I would even go about checking this. Anything you can tell me that might help?

UPDATE: it works fine on other sites. Both the site where it works and the one where it doesn’t are running php 7.2.9.